7/25/2025
A Letter to the Membership from the Interim General Manager about Storm Response:
Dear Members,
The weather this past month has presented extraordinary challenges for both the Association and our community. I want to express my sympathy to those who have experienced losses and encourage all members to support one another during this difficult time. LOWA itself has sustained over $250,000 in damage—costs that will not be covered by insurance.
What makes this summer different from previous summers? These storms have tested the limits of our stormwater systems, particularly at the back gate where flooding occurred. In my eight years here, only the June 2018 storm compares, but this summer has been different. While we can’t exclusively tie climate change to these recent storms, it is intensifying storm patterns, leading to localized, short-duration downpours that overwhelm drainage systems.
Is our stormwater system broken? No—but it was not designed for the frequency or severity of today’s flash floods. The 2022 AMT Lakes & Stormwater Report noted that Keatons Lake rises quickly during intense storms, while the Main Lake is affected more by sustained rainfall. In recent storms, rain fell intensely and locally; our stormwater system handles 3-4 inches of rain over 24 hours very differently than 3-4 inches of rain in an hour or two, and the system was overwhelmed.
Could LOWA have prevented the flooding near the back gate? Unlikely. Even with advance drawdown, the lakes rise rapidly during these intense storms. Opening sluice gates early could have mitigated some flooding, especially in members yards and over bulkheads, but it would not have prevented the flooding at the back gate which originated from Flat Run and its tributaries (see map below).
Map Key: Light blue lines indicate streams with yellow indicating their flood plain, purple indicates the lake with magenta indicating the lake’s flood plain.
How do we decide when to open the sluice gates? The decision to open sluice gates is complex, involving multiple variables that change quickly. Our current protocols are geared toward predictable events like hurricanes and may not fully address today’s rapidly developing flash floods.
Opening the gates is not a simple math equation, e.g. expecting 1-inch of rain = 3-inches of lake rise thus opening the gates 12 hours in advance. The higher the lake level is, then the more water can flow over the spillway, which will supplement the water that is flowing out of the gates. In 2011, AGM / Maintenance Director Elton Rupe wrote a memo discussing this very topic.
He wrote that we need to consider many factors such as “When is it best to do a preemptive release? What amount or duration of forecasted rainfall would trigger it? How long before the rainfall event is supposed to arrive do we open the gate? Or if the lake is already below full pool how much further do we draw the water level down?”
So, what do we do next? LOWA has taken steps to adapt. We now consult directly with the National Weather Service before storms and ask more targeted questions to better anticipate rainfall intensity. We’re also evaluating our protocols and considering improvements, such as:
- Remote operation of sluice gates and real-time lake level monitoring.
- Upgrading or replacing our weather station systems.
- Enhancing stormwater infrastructure, including ditches, culverts and retention ponds.
- Cross-training staff and Security for monitoring and response.
- Ensuring timely, coordinated communication with Members, staff, Security, and local emergency services.
- Educating members on why preemptive lake drawdowns may be necessary.
In Conclusion: As we move forward, LOWA is committed to being proactive and adaptive in the face of changing climate conditions. These storms will likely increase in frequency and severity, requiring us all—staff and members alike—to work together. We will hold a workshop in August for staff, board, and committee representatives, to review our storm response protocols and explore improvements.
In the meantime, I encourage every member to stay informed and prepared: monitor weather forecasts and heed advisories from the National Weather Service and Orange County. Know your flood risk visit the Orange County, VA website and check the floodplain maps on the GIS https://orangecountyva.gov/823/GIS-Information. Visit https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/floods for guidance on flood preparedness.
Finally, please look out for your neighbors, especially those affected by these storms. Together, as a resilient community, we can meet these challenges head-on.
Sincerely,
Carolyn Brodeur
Interim General Manager